Integral Logistics Management — Operations Management and Supply Chain Management Within and Across Companies

10.9 References

ASCM22Pittman, P. et al., ASCM Dictionary, 17th Ed., APICS/ASCM, Chicago, 2022
BoJe15Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C., Ljung, G.M., “Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,” 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2015
Corn05Cornelius, P. et al., “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell,” California Management Review, 48.1, pp. 92-109, 2005
Fers64Ferschl, F., “Zufallsabhängige Wirtschaftsprozesse,” Physica, 1964
Gahs71Gahse, S., “Mathematische Vorhersageverfahren und ihre Anwendung,” Verlag Moderne Industrie, München, 1971
GaKe89Gardner, E.S, Jr., McKenzie, E., “Seasonal Exponential Smoothing with Damped Trends,” Management Science (Note), 35(3) 1989, pp. 372–375
IBM73IBM, COPICS, “Communications Oriented Production Information and Control System, Bedarfsvorhersage,” IBM, Deutschland, 1973
Lewa80Lewandowski, R., “Prognose- und Informationssysteme und ihre Anwendungen,” de Gruyter, Berlin, 1980
Scho93Schoemaker, P., “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Beha-vioral Foundation,” Strategic Management Journal, 14, pp. 193-213, 1993
TrLe67Trigg, D.W., Leach, A.G., “Exponential Smoothing with an Adaptive Response Rate,” Operations Research Quarterly, 1967, pp. 53–59
WhMa97Wheelwright, S.C., Makridakis, S., “Forecasting Methods for Management,” 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1997

Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

  • Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

  • 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

  • 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

    Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

  • 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

  • 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

  • 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

  • 10.6 Summary


  • 10.7 Keywords


  • 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

    Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

  • 10.9 References


  • Case [Course 10]