APIC16 | Pittman, P. et al., APICS Dictionary, 15th Edition, APICS, Chicago, IL, 2016 |

BoJe15 | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C., Ljung, G.M., “Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,” 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2015 |

Corn05 | Cornelius, P. et al., “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell,” California Management Review, 48.1, pp. 92-109, 2005 |

Fers64 | Ferschl, F., “Zufallsabhängige Wirtschaftsprozesse,” Physica, 1964 |

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Scho93 | Schoemaker, P., “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Beha-vioral Foundation,” Strategic Management Journal, 14, pp. 193-213, 1993 |

TrLe67 | Trigg, D.W., Leach, A.G., “Exponential Smoothing with an Adaptive Response Rate,” Operations Research Quarterly, 1967, pp. 53–59 |

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## Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

##### Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

##### 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

##### 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

##### 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

##### 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

##### 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

##### 10.6 Summary

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##### 10.7 Keywords

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##### 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

##### 10.9 References

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##### Case [Course 10]

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