# 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

## Course section 10.8: Subsections and their intended learning outcomes

• ##### 10.8.1 Exercise: Choice of Appropriate Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Propose a forecasting technique for different products to apply to forecast future demand.

• ##### 10.8.2 Exercise: Moving Average Forecasting Technique

Intended learning outcomes: Calculate forecasts with moving average forecasting technique.

• ##### 10.8.3 Exercise: First-Order Exponential Smoothing

Intended learning outcomes: Calculate forecasts using first-order exponential smoothing technique.

• ##### 10.8.4 Scenario: Moving Average Forecast versus First-Order Exponential Smoothing Forecast

Intended learning outcomes: Differentiate between moving average forecast and first-order exponential smoothing using different numbers of observed values or smoothing constants α.

• ##### 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

## Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

• ##### Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

• ##### 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

• ##### 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

• ##### 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

• ##### 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

• ##### 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

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• ##### 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

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