## To locate a keyword's definition or its use, just click on it.

adaptive smoothing

consumption distribution

curve fitting

Delphi method

demand model

distribution of forecast errors

expected value

extrinsic forecasting techniques

first-order exponential smoothing

forecast error

forecast horizon

forecast interval

forecasting

forecasting model for constant demand

forecasting technique

graphic forecasting techniques

historically oriented forecasting techniques

intrinsic forecasting techniques

intuitive forecasting techniques

life-cycle analysis

mean

mean absolute deviation (MAD)

mean deviation

moving average

moving average forecasting technique

option percentage

planning period

probability

qualitative forecasting techniques

quantitative forecasting techniques

regression analysis

safety demand

scenario planning

seasonal fluctuations

seasonal index

seasonality

second-order exponential smoothing

single (exponential) smoothing

smoothing

smoothing constant α

smoothing constant ℽ

## Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

##### Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

##### 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

##### 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

##### 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

##### 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

##### 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

##### 10.6 Summary

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##### 10.7 Keywords

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##### 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

##### 10.9 References

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##### Case [Course 10]

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