Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.
During the various phases of the product life cycle, different forecasting techniques are used.
Life-cycle analysis is based on applying to a new product (in a quantitative manner) past demand patterns covering introduction, growth, maturity, saturation, and decline of similar products ([ASCM22]).
For the phases of introduction and decline, in particular, future-oriented forecasting techniques are used, both quantitative and qualitative. A technique representative of each class will be presented in the following.
Course section 10.4: Subsections and their intended learning outcomes
10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.
10.4.1 Trend Extrapolation Forecast
Intended learning outcomes: Identify base demand B0(k) for period k>0 known at time t=0. Explain the calculation of the quotient “actual demand in period t+k” divided by “base demand known for period t+k at the end of period t”, k>1. Describe smoothing of quotient means for extrapolation leading to extrapolated forecast values for forecast distance k.
10.4.2 The Delphi Method
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the Delphi forecasting method as a series of successive surveys that increase consensus.
10.4.3 Scenario Forecasts and Scenario Planning
Intended learning outcomes: Describe scenario forecasts and scenario planning along a time axis. Present the procedure for scenario planning.
Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes
Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.
10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.
10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand
Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.
10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.
10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.
10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.
10.6 Summary
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10.7 Keywords
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10.8 Scenarios and Exercises
Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.
