Integral Logistics Management — Operations Management and Supply Chain Management Within and Across Companies

10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.


During the various phases of the product life cycle, different forecasting techniques are used.

Life-cycle analysis is based on applying to a new product (in a quantitative manner) past demand patterns covering introduction, growth, maturity, saturation, and decline of similar products ([APIC16]).

For the phases of introduction and decline, in particular, future-oriented fore­casting techniques are used, both quantitative and qualitative. A technique representative of each class will be presented in the following.


Course section 10.4: Subsections and their intended learning outcomes

  • 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

  • 10.4.1 Trend Extrapolation Forecast

    Intended learning outcomes: Identify demand B0(k) for period k>0 known at time t=0. Explain the calculation of the quotient “actual demand in period t+k” divided by “base demand known for period t+k at the end of period t”, k>1. Describe smoothing of quotient means for extrapolation leading to extrapolated forecast values for forecast distance k.

  • 10.4.2 The Delphi Method

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the Delphi forecasting method as a series of successive surveys that increase consensus.

  • 10.4.3 Scenario Forecasts and Scenario Planning

    Intended learning outcomes: Describe scenario forecasts and scenario planning along a time axis. Present the procedure for scenario planning.



Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

  • Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

  • 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

  • 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

    Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

  • 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

  • 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

    Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

  • 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

    Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

  • 10.6 Summary

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  • 10.7 Keywords

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  • 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

    Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.


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