*Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.*

## Course section 10.1: Subsections and their intended learning outcomes

##### 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

##### 10.1.1 The Problem of Demand Planning

Intended learning outcomes: Disclose the difference between human forecasting and IT-supported forecasting techniques with regard to a forecast’s precision. Present a possible demand planning procedure.

##### 10.1.2 Subdivision of Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain one possible breakdown of forecasting techniques. Disclose another possible subdivision of forecasting techniques.

##### 10.1.3 Principles of Forecasting Techniques with Extrapolation of Time Series

Intended learning outcomes: Present an example of a time series. Explain possible and common demand models.

##### 10.1.3b Statistical Methods to Determine Mean and Dispersion and Definition of Variables

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on statistical methods to determine mean and dispersion. Identify definitions of variables, each calculated at the end of a statistical period.

## Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes

##### Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.

##### 10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.

##### 10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand

Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.

##### 10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.

##### 10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques

Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.

##### 10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning

Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.

##### 10.6 Summary

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##### 10.7 Keywords

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##### 10.8 Scenarios and Exercises

Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.