| ASCM22 | Pittman, P. et al., ASCM Dictionary, 17th Ed., APICS/ASCM, Chicago, 2022 |
| BoJe15 | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C., Ljung, G.M., “Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,” 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2015 |
| Corn05 | Cornelius, P. et al., “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell,” California Management Review, 48.1, pp. 92-109, 2005 |
| Fers64 | Ferschl, F., “Zufallsabhängige Wirtschaftsprozesse,” Physica, 1964 |
| Gahs71 | Gahse, S., “Mathematische Vorhersageverfahren und ihre Anwendung,” Verlag Moderne Industrie, München, 1971 |
| GaKe89 | Gardner, E.S, Jr., McKenzie, E., “Seasonal Exponential Smoothing with Damped Trends,” Management Science (Note), 35(3) 1989, pp. 372–375 |
| IBM73 | IBM, COPICS, “Communications Oriented Production Information and Control System, Bedarfsvorhersage,” IBM, Deutschland, 1973 |
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| Scho93 | Schoemaker, P., “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Beha-vioral Foundation,” Strategic Management Journal, 14, pp. 193-213, 1993 |
| TrLe67 | Trigg, D.W., Leach, A.G., “Exponential Smoothing with an Adaptive Response Rate,” Operations Research Quarterly, 1967, pp. 53–59 |
| WhMa97 | Wheelwright, S.C., Makridakis, S., “Forecasting Methods for Management,” 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1997 |
Course 10: Sections and their intended learning outcomes
Course 10 – Demand Planning and Demand Forecasting
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview of forecasting techniques. Explain history-oriented techniques for constant demand in detail. Identify history-oriented techniques with trend-shaped behavior. Describe three future-oriented techniques. Disclose how to use forecasts in planning.
10.1 Overview of Demand Planning and Forecasting Techniques
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the problem of demand planning. Present the subdivision of forecasting techniques. Disclose principles of forecasting techniques with extrapolation of time series and the definition of variables.
10.2 Historically Oriented Techniques for Constant Demand
Intended learning outcomes: Describe the moving average forecast. Explain the first-order exponential smoothing forecast. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.
10.3 Historically Oriented Techniques with Trend-Shaped Behavior
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the regression analysis forecast and the second-order exponential smoothing forecast. Describe the Trigg and Leach adaptive smoothing technique. Produce an overview on seasonality.
10.4 Future-Oriented Techniques
Intended learning outcomes: Explain the trend extrapolation forecast and the Delphi method. Describe scenario forecasts.
10.5 Using Forecasts in Planning
Intended learning outcomes: Produce an overview on the choice of suitable forecasting technique. Describe consumption distributions and their limits, continuous and discontinuous demand. Explain demand forecasting of variants of a product family. Present safety demand calculation for various planning periods. Disclose the translation of forecast into quasi-deterministic demand.
10.6 Summary
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10.7 Keywords
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10.8 Scenarios and Exercises
Intended learning outcomes: Choose an appropriate forecasting technique. Calculate an example for the moving average forecasting technique and for the first-order exponential smoothing technique. Differentiate between the moving average forecast and the first-order exponential smoothing forecast.
10.9 References
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Case [Course 10]
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